Rifts Emerge Within Hungary's Ruling Party
Analysis
Prime Minister Viktor Orban may only
have a few months left in office, according to a Dec. 28
report published by Hungarian daily newspaper Nepszava, citing
sources close to the ruling Fidesz party. The report describes
deep dissatisfaction within the party and a growing sentiment
that Orban is an obstacle to success, factors the sources say
could lead to a change in leadership following German
Chancellor Angela Merkel's planned February visit to Budapest.
The report is the latest indication of a growing rift within
Fidesz. Although the party won re-election in April and
controls two-thirds of the seats in Hungary's parliament,
tensions over Orban's increasing isolation and disagreements
over the country's foreign policy orientation have increased
over the past months. While Hungary's government is unlikely
to collapse anytime soon, the rift within Fidesz presents a
challenge to Orban — the party's popularity is falling and
anti-government protests are on the
rise.Fidesz, which
stands for the Alliance of Young Democrats, originated in 1988
when a group of 37 young students and intellectuals in two
university dorms founded the party as a liberal entity. Orban
was one these founding members, and by 1994, he was steering
the neophyte party toward the right wing of Hungary's
political spectrum. While he was unquestionably the leader of
Fidesz throughout the 1990s and 2000s, a group of fellow
Fidesz founders and early members played a major role in
advising Orban and shaping the party's
policies.
What is a
Geopolitical Diary? George
Friedman Explains.
During his second term as prime
minister from 2010-2014, however, Orban started to promote
new, younger members of Fidesz to influential posts. Toward
the end of the term he was relying on an increasingly small
circle of advisors, many of whom were newly appointed
officials who lacked significant political or administrative
experience. In fact, many of these new appointees owe their
positions and political careers to Orban himself. At the same
time, many older members of Fidesz were sidelined or relegated
to posts outside the country. A number of ministries also had
their decision-making authorities removed, further
concentrating power in the prime minister's office and in the
hands of Orban's contracting inner circle. Dependence on this
small group, which seldom challenges Orban's views, has
contributed to confusion and frequent changes in policies,
alienating many of the party's veterans and elements of the
state apparatus. As Orban has centralized power, many of his
political allies have been marginalized, and now they are
becoming dissatisfied.Orban's suspicious feelings toward the United States have also contributed to rifts within Fidesz. Some party officials, such as founding member and current chairman of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, Zsolt Nemeth, have long seen the West in a more positive light. While the United States and Hungary have an uneasy relationship because of concerns over the Fidesz government's centralization of power, the relationship has only worsened recently. In October, the United States banned six Hungarian nationals, including the head of Hungary's National Tax and Customs Administration, over corruption charges. Orban responded by publicly pushing department's head to sue the U.S. charge d'affaires in Hungary. A case was filed in December, and Orban repeatedly made public accusations that the United States is acting against Hungary's national interest. Moreover, Hungary has continually made attempts to build stronger ties with Russia, even after the outbreak of the crisis in neighboring Ukraine. These foreign policy moves have combined to further alienate Fidesz members who support a Hungarian alliance with Western partners and increased political backing for the government in Kiev. These reports of growing rifts within Fidesz come at a time when the party's popularity is waning. Orban was forced to backpedal on a proposal for an internet tax after one hundred thousand Hungarians staged a protest against the plan in October, threatening to undermine the party's support among its core middle-class constituency. Thousands also rallied against corruption, especially after the government refused to address U.S. concerns regarding corruption in Hungary's National Tax and Customs Administration. While these protests failed to change Orban's policies, in the month following the U.S. bans, one poll showed the Fidesz party's popularity falling by an unprecedented 12 percentage points, demonstrating that strained relations with the United States and ongoing questions over corruption are impacting not only dynamics within Fidesz but also the party's support among voters. Despite the reported rifts in the ruling party, a faction capable of challenging Orban's supremacy has yet to publicly emerge, though there are indications that some of the party's members are distancing themselves from Orban and maneuvering in anticipation of such a scenario. Although there are doubts about Orban and his small circle of advisors, many Fidesz members have benefited greatly from his rule — both politically and financially. Because of this, they will hesitate to replace him without first building a coalition strong enough to challenge the prime minister. Any contenders will also want assurances that they will not lose their political positions and personal fortunes under a new Fidesz leadership. Orban's rule may not be over, but the foundation of his power — the Fidesz party machine — has come under threat. For Hungary, 2015 will see the government strive to avoid international isolation while also facing a host of domestic economic challenges. As a country in the Eurasian borderlands, Hungary has attempted to balance its ties to the West with its relationship with Russia. On one hand, Hungary is a member of both the European Union and NATO, depending heavily on investment and funding from the European Union and its central bank. On the other hand, the Fidesz government has sought to attract investment from Russia in the form of projects that include upgrading its Paks nuclear power plant and supporting the South Stream pipeline project. However, Russia cancelled South Stream and is facing economic troubles of its own, meaning Hungary has less of an opportunity to benefit from its relations with the Kremlin. Orban miscalculated, and now he finds himself struggling to rebalance the country's foreign alliances. In a conciliatory gesture to the West on Jan. 1, Hungary will resume reverse natural gas flows to Ukraine after halting them in late September. Nevertheless, with tensions between Hungary and its Western partners still rife, Hungary faces the challenge of avoiding international isolation in 2015. US-Hungary Relations Are A Marriage In Deep Crisis, Fidesz’s Zsolt Németh SaysMr. Németh pointed out that it gives cause for special concern that the situation has also worsened in regions that distinctly stood by Hungary in the previous four years, citing the country’s Central European allies as an example. Concerning the case of Ildikó Vida, the chairman of the National Tax and Customs Administration who is at the centre of the US visa ban affair, he said that it is unfortunately to associate someone with allegations of corruption without providing the possibility to defend oneself, adding that among allies, it can be expected from parties to do everything possible to root out unfounded accusations becoming public. Commenting on US-Hungarian relations, he drew a comparison with a marriage experiencing a deep crisis. “This is the deepest crisis since the marriage took place, a situation in which the two sides occasionally completely loose their sobriety and thir self-control, such as the case involving Senator McCain. However, I do not believe that all responsibility can be laid on the Americans. It takes two to tango”, Mr. Németh said. In Mr. Németh’s opinion, the aggravation of disputes between the governments of the United States and Hungary can be attributed fundamentally to questions of security policy, such as NATO, Russia and the South Stream, adding that this is no excuse for the country’s allies to disregard unwritten rules. The situation could be resolved if the West would present Russia with a reasonable political offer, the chairman of Parliament’s foreign affairs committee concluded. via index.hu photo: index.hu/Orsi Ajpek |
'Some Things You Never Forget'
The small scar above Marion Barry's heart has had three decades to fade,
but it's still noticeable -- evidence that some things don't disappear
with time.
For 39 hours in March 1977 -- before the word "terrorism" entered our
daily vocabulary -- 12 gunmen paralyzed the District in a three-point
siege. The group of Hanafi Muslims held about 150 people hostage in
three buildings, and before they surrendered, a young reporter was
killed and dozens were injured, including D.C. Council member Barry. A
shotgun pellet pierced his chest, right above his heart, nearly killing
him.
"It's been a long time, but some things you never forget. And that's one of them," Barry said in an interview.
This morning, many who remember those three days and others who simply recognize their significance will gather in the Wilson Building's fifth-floor press room. They will unveil two plaques and dedicate the room to Maurice Williams, the WHUR-FM radio reporter who was shot as he stepped off an elevator in the District Building, the name of the city government's headquarters at the time.
The building was one of the three places targeted in the siege, along with the B'nai B'rith International Center, at the time on Rhode Island Avenue NW, and the Islamic Center, on Massachusetts Avenue NW.
"I believe this incident was one of the more traumatic incidents in the history of this city, and the fact that he was the only African American journalist ever killed in the line of duty . . . makes it a very special occasion," Paul Brock, who was WHUR's news director when Williams was a student intern, said yesterday.
Brock will be among those gathered. "It's an incident that everyone should know about," he said. "It was a hint of things to come."
The siege started March 9, 1977, at a time when security was still relaxed in government buildings and hostage videos weren't a few clicks away on the Internet. It was before people searched mail for white powder or suicide bombings claimed regular headlines. It was a time when Judge London Steverson did not even have to show his identification card to gain entrance to his office in the International Division of Coast Guard Headquarters across town in the John Volpe Transportation Building at 7th and D Street, SW.
"This was an early wake-up call about violence and terrorism and the extent to which groups will go to engage in violence either for the sake of violence or to make a point," Daniel S. Mariaschin, executive vice president of B'nai B'rith International, said yesterday. "Little did we know 30 years ago that this kind of issue would be a daily concern for all of us, not only here in Washington but abroad as well." He will speak at today's event.
The 12 gunmen had several demands. They wanted the government to hand over a group of men who had been convicted of killing seven relatives -- mostly children -- of takeover leader Hamaas Abdul Khaalis. They also demanded that the movie "Mohammad, Messenger of God" be destroyed because they considered it sacrilegious.
Most of the hostages, more than 100, were captured at the B'nai B'rith headquarters.
Rae Ehrlich, a secretary on the fourth floor of the Jewish organization's building at the time, was among those held captive.
"It's been a long time, but some things you never forget. And that's one of them," Barry said in an interview.
This morning, many who remember those three days and others who simply recognize their significance will gather in the Wilson Building's fifth-floor press room. They will unveil two plaques and dedicate the room to Maurice Williams, the WHUR-FM radio reporter who was shot as he stepped off an elevator in the District Building, the name of the city government's headquarters at the time.
The building was one of the three places targeted in the siege, along with the B'nai B'rith International Center, at the time on Rhode Island Avenue NW, and the Islamic Center, on Massachusetts Avenue NW.
"I believe this incident was one of the more traumatic incidents in the history of this city, and the fact that he was the only African American journalist ever killed in the line of duty . . . makes it a very special occasion," Paul Brock, who was WHUR's news director when Williams was a student intern, said yesterday.
Brock will be among those gathered. "It's an incident that everyone should know about," he said. "It was a hint of things to come."
The siege started March 9, 1977, at a time when security was still relaxed in government buildings and hostage videos weren't a few clicks away on the Internet. It was before people searched mail for white powder or suicide bombings claimed regular headlines. It was a time when Judge London Steverson did not even have to show his identification card to gain entrance to his office in the International Division of Coast Guard Headquarters across town in the John Volpe Transportation Building at 7th and D Street, SW.
"This was an early wake-up call about violence and terrorism and the extent to which groups will go to engage in violence either for the sake of violence or to make a point," Daniel S. Mariaschin, executive vice president of B'nai B'rith International, said yesterday. "Little did we know 30 years ago that this kind of issue would be a daily concern for all of us, not only here in Washington but abroad as well." He will speak at today's event.
The 12 gunmen had several demands. They wanted the government to hand over a group of men who had been convicted of killing seven relatives -- mostly children -- of takeover leader Hamaas Abdul Khaalis. They also demanded that the movie "Mohammad, Messenger of God" be destroyed because they considered it sacrilegious.
Most of the hostages, more than 100, were captured at the B'nai B'rith headquarters.
Rae Ehrlich, a secretary on the fourth floor of the Jewish organization's building at the time, was among those held captive.